Weichai Power (000338) Company Comment： 4Q Heavy Truck Industry Exceeds Expectations and Raises Annual Report Expectations
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Weichai Power (000338) Company Comment: 4Q Heavy Truck Industry Exceeds Expectations and Raises Annual Report Expectations
The sales volume of the heavy truck industry in 19 was much better than the market expectation at the end of 18.
Sales of 1.17 million vehicles before 19 years, + 2% per year, far exceed the 19 year expectations at the end of 18 years (around -20%).
We believe that the expected difference comes from: the logistics heavy truck sales hub brought by the continuous increase in the number of heavy trucks, and the market caused insufficient levels. After the emergence of heavy truck replacement in 18 years, the market has a linear extrapolation.Logistics heavy trucks will continue gradually.
However, we believe that the overlap of heavy logistics in 18 years is only due to the high base caused by the one-time purchase demand brought about by the 17-year rule. Therefore, at the end of 18, we insisted that the industry would still not experience a cliff-like decline in 19 years.
Weichai’s 4Q results may be better than expected.
In terms of quarters, the annual growth rate of heavy truck industry Q1-Q4 was + 1%, -5%, + 4%, + 13%.
19Q2 is probably at least mainly due to the high base of 18Q2.
Although the base in 18Q3 has been reduced, the heavy-duty truck industry in 19Q3 has been affected by the large tonnage and small standards, so the alternating growth rate of 19Q3 is not high.
Due to (1) the sales volume of the industry in 19Q4 was significantly higher than expected and increased by 13% each year; (2) the LNG heavy trucks were sold well in the fourth quarter.industry.
Weichai obviously benefited, and its annual report may exceed expectations.
From the perspective of the group, in 2019, Weichai Group (Weichai Group controlled the listed company Weichai Power) 杭州桑拿 realized operating income of 261.2 billion yuan, an increase of 14%.
Strategic reorganization of Germany’s Oeders and Austria’s Widis, to accelerate the industrialization of Weichai’s new format.
On January 15, 20, Weichai Power successfully completed the acquisition of 80% equity of ODS, which was converted into the acquisition of 51% equity of Vedis.
ODS is a technology leader in the field of high-power inverters and power equipment, and Vedis is one of the few well-known vehicle drive system development technology companies.
Weichai’s strategic restructuring has accelerated the industrialization of Weichai’s new business format.
In 2020, the industry’s sales volume is unlikely to show a cliff-like decline in market concerns.
We continue to use the sales volume calculation model to predict that the sales volume 杭州桑拿网 in 20 and 21 years will exceed 1.1 million units, with the acceleration of the elimination of the country ‘s triple trucks; (2) the impact of large tonnage standards on engineering heavy trucks will gradually decline;3) The governance of Wuxi has been tightened, and bicycle capacity has decreased.
There is a possibility of industry sales exceeding 1.2 million vehicles.
Investment suggestion: As the Q4 sales volume of the heavy truck industry exceeds expectations, we raise the company’s net profit forecast for the company from 2019 to 2021 to 104.
9 and 129.
700 million (democratic expectations are 97.
0 billion, 107.
700 million and 110.
800 million), the corresponding price-earnings ratios are 11 times, 10 times, 9 times.
Given 20 years of 13X target PE, the corresponding target price is raised to 18.
80 yuan (democracy target price is 15.
90 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: Progress in the elimination of the country’s triple truck is less than expected, and major changes in the structure of social logistics transportation