CPIC (601601): Steady increase in operating profit, EV raises expectations

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CPIC (601601): Steady increase in operating profit, EV raises expectations

Category : gulxqjjy

CPIC (601601): Steady increase in operating profit, EV raises expectations

The tax reduction effect drove a substantial increase in performance, and the operating profit steadily improved. The company’s net profit attributable to its mothers in 19H1 was 16.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of +96.

1%, net profit growth after deduction is 38.

1%, growth in performance is mainly due to the 49 trillion interest rate reduction under the new tax reform rules, so the effective tax rate in 19H1 is -14% (18H1 is 38%).

The company disclosed its operating profit indicators for the first time. In 19H1, the operating profit of the parent reached 13.6 billion yuan, YoY + 14.

7%.

The company’s business in the first half of the year improved significantly quarter by quarter, and 北京体验网 it is expected that the EPS for 2019-21 will be 3 respectively.

59 yuan, 3.

98 yuan and 4.

78 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

The new single marginal improvement, and the proportion of high-performing human resources to increase agent channels remained the main driving force, with 19H1 accounting for 95% of individual customers.

9%, a year-on-year increase of +2.

4pct.

The margin of the agent’s first-year delivery picked up. In 19H1, premiums reached 22.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16% year-on-year. The decline in early 19Q1 narrowed by 2pct.

High level of 7%.

The pulling effect of renewal gradually appeared, and the renewal business accounted for 79 agents’ channels.

3% (+4 compared to the same period last year).

1pct).

Affected by the pressure of new single hypertension and the improvement of agent retention rate, the average monthly salesperson was 79.

60,000 people, YoY-11%, but the proportion of the average monthly healthy manpower and excellent manpower increased by 0.

6pct and 1.

6 points.

Production capacity has also increased against the trend, with a monthly FYP of 5887 yuan per capita and YoY + 5%; the monthly per capita commission in the first year has been increased by 2.

8% to 1247 yuan, which is conducive to agent retention and team stability.

NBV kinetic energy differentiation, strong EV growth in the first half of NBV reached 149 trillion, YoY-8.

4%, the total margin is 39%, which fluctuates slightly twice a year.

4pct.
Including traditional life insurance margin6.

4pct to 73%, but the new single growth rate of 57% pushed its NBV growth rate to 44.

3%, NBV accounted for 83% (YoY + 31pct); in comparison, the dividend quality and quality of life insurance are under pressure, dragging down the overall level.

However, EV performance exceeded expectations, and the group’s growth rate reached 18.

1%, life insurance EV reached 18.

9%, strong growth momentum.

P & C insurance business kinetic energy conversion, cost ratio slightly improved P & C insurance business 19H1 realized premiums of $ 68.2 billion, +12 year-on-year.

5%, the growth rate of the segmented business is differentiated, and the performance of the auto insurance business is weak, with a growth rate of only 5.

2%, but the growth rate of non-car insurance is dazzling, up to 31.

4%, to promote the increase in the proportion of non-vehicle business increased by about 5pct to 32.

4%.

The comprehensive cost rate is slightly optimized every year.1 point to 98.

6%, of which the expense ratio has improved significantly1.

3pct to 39.

4%, the payout rate has increased, ten years +1.

2 points to 59.

2%.

The auto insurance cost rate rose slightly to 0.

4 points to 98.

4%, while non-auto insurance has improved significantly, and the cost ratio has decreased by 2.

2pct to 99.

5%, underwriting profit has been realized.

The return on investment has increased slightly, maintaining the buy-rated stocks and equity funds 19H1 accounted for +1 at the beginning of the year.

8 points to 7.

4%, but it is still at a low level among the listed peers, and the elasticity to the capital market was weak in the first half of the year, so the total return on investment has increased only slightly.

3 points to 4.

8%.

Bond investment fell in a downward interest rate environment2.

5pct configuration, while increasing investment in non-public market financing instruments1.

2pct, expand the configuration range with the additional controllable risk.

According to the latest earnings adjustment earnings forecast, it is estimated that the EVPS in 2019-21 will be 43.

56 yuan, 50.

82 yuan and 59.

16 yuan (previous value was 43.

62 yuan, 51.

10 yuan and 59.

70 yuan).

Corresponding P / EV is 0.

92x, 0.

79x and 0.

68x.

Comparable companies average 1.

03x, we give 1 for 2019.

1-1.

2xP / EV, with a target price range of 47.

91?
52.

27 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: The advancement of the insurance business is weaker than expected, and the downward interest rate brings potential risk of spread damage. The fluctuation of the equity market leads to the uncertainty of investment income growth.