Longda Meat (002726)： Doubled breeding and slaughter in three years to rebuild Longda
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Longda Meat (002726): Doubled breeding and slaughter in three years to rebuild Longda
Summary of the report 1. Breeding business: rapid expansion of production capacity, huge flexibility in performance and flexibility: the convertible bond project is expected to be put into production in 2 years, and the company’s breeding capacity will increase to 1 million heads, and the production capacity can be doubled within 2 years. The growth rate will be listed on the marketRanked among the best in the company. Sales price: At present, the pig price in Shandong is higher than the national average price by about 1 yuan / kg. The company has fully benefited from the current and future high pig prices, and its performance has achieved explosive growth. Yield damage: Increased reduction in productive biological assets, growth in productive biological assets in the first quarter of 20191.06%, a decrease of 7 from the end of 2018.41%, the company is less affected by the epidemic in the sector, and the long-term pig production volume is guaranteed. 2. Slaughtering business volume: The production capacity 佛山桑拿网 has been greatly increased, and the business scope has been expanded to expand the production capacity: The company plans to add 500 in the next 3 years?8 million head / year slaughter capacity, expected 2021?2022 slaughter capacity will reach 1300?14 million heads / year.The total slaughter volume of the company in 2018 was 477.80,000 heads, expected to reach 6 million heads in 2019; it is expected to reach 11 million heads in 2021, and the industry ranks second. Business Layout Expansion: Join hands with Lan Run to enter the Southwest.In June 2019, Lanrun Development became the company’s controlling shareholder; Dai Runbin, the actual controller of Lanrun Development, and Dong Xiang and his wife became the actual controllers of the company.Lanrun and its parent company Yijun Holdings have been cultivating in the southwest market for many years. In the future, it will help the company develop the southwest market and further develop the company into a national meat products company.Breaking through Lan Run’s market expansion operation and merger and acquisition experience, the company is expected to achieve a breakthrough in the meat products business. Earnings forecast gives Buy rating.Based on the rapid growth of the company’s slaughter volume and slaughter volume, the company’s profit forecast and target price are raised. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/2020/2021 will be 3 respectively.21/4.14/4.7.9 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.42/0.55/0.63 yuan, giving the company 30 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 16.50 yuan, give a buy rating. Risk warnings 1. Breakthrough in pork price fluctuations will have an impact on the company’s operating income and costs; 2. Blue ears and African swine fever that may occur during breeding will adversely affect the company ‘s pig breeding business; 3. Food safetyThe accident will have a potential impact on the company’s slaughter and meat products business. 4. The launch of African swine fever vaccine may interrupt the process of de-capacity production, and the company’s profitability may be less than expected.