The history of the fixed fund reincarnation: The huge profits and the red net worth “squat” now appear dark?
Source: Capital Deep Dive No. Original title: Dingzeng Fund Reincarnation History: Five years ago, the profit was huge and the net worth was “squat.”
Author | Liu Hua Editor | Liao Sha Last Friday, the Securities and Futures Commission issued new rules for refinancing to “unbundle” private placements of listed companies.
You should know that the Dingzeng Fund has become a hot spot for public fundraising.
Time pulled back to the “first year of fixed-income funds”-In 2015, public-funded fixed-income funds were particularly sought after, and the arbitrage space made them quickly become “net red funds.”
In the second year, despite the dismal harvest of public funds, the fixed-income fund was still in demand, and the scene of ending the fundraising earlier appeared, which was evenly compared with the current fund “sold in one day” and “proportional placement” scenes.
In May 2017, the policy fund market ushered in a “thunder”, and the CSRC tightened new regulations on refinancing and reduction of holdings.
The fixed-income fund has repeatedly failed to issue and staged a “curve destocking” one after another . Recently, someone called Jiutai Ruiyi’s fixed-income fund has opened up for claims and redemptions on the open day. 1.
700 million funds wanted to be redeemed, but there were only 170,000 “embarrassing scenes” to be purchased, and the fixed-income fund changed from “thousands of fans” to “thousands of people leaving .” Five years passed in a hurry, some sort of past “What kind of ups and downs have the “net red” funds experienced?
From “Hot” to “No Man”, according to data from Oriental Fortune Choice, there are only 27 funds left in the concept of “fixed increase fund”.
These 27 funds have the latest size of about 14.2 billion; and 2015?
When it was issued in 2016, it had exceeded $ 38.4 billion in “gold absorption”.
Specifically, the latest size of 13 funds has shrunk by more than 80% from the time of initial issuance; only the latest size of 6 funds has increased from that of the year.
▼ Attached picture: Changes in the size of surviving fixed increase funds From the above table, we can see that 16 of the 27 funds have raised funds of more than 1 billion for the first time; a total of 2 funds of “Dingzengwang” Caitong raised more than4.5 billion copies.
According to statistics, there were 1151 new funds issued in the public offering market in 2016, raising a total of 1.
08 trillion copies, an average of 9 funds raised per fund.
With 4.1 billion copies (including the debt base), the data hit a record low.
It can be seen that the Dingzheng Fund was “hot” when it was issued that year.
In addition, from the time axis, only 6 of these 27 fixed-income funds were established in 2015; in fact, the scale of fixed-income funds broke out in 2016.
At that time, research report data showed that, as of the end of 2016, the total asset size of the fixed increase fund was 449.
6.6 billion, 65 before the end of 2015.
3.4 billion surged 6.
However, this highlight moment seems to be frozen for a moment, since 2017, the Dingzeng Fund suddenly “disappeared”.
What happened in 2017?
From the groundfall in 2015 to 2016, there was nothing in the limelight. In 2017, it suddenly disappeared. What happened to Dingzeng Fund at this time?
According to public information, in February 2017, regulators issued new rules for refinancing.
In summary, the new regulations are to significantly increase the discount rate in the fixed price increase market.
In the following May, the supervisors issued new regulations to reduce their holdings, which stipulated that the shareholders of fixed shareholdings must not reduce their holdings by more than 50% within 12 months after the lifting of the ban, restricting the shareholders’ withdrawal mechanism after lifting the ban.
Under the dual influence of pricing compression “profit safety mat” and withdrawal and further overlap, the fixed increase fund will be closed for a time and the dilemma will be inevitable.
In essence, the A-share’s logic of making money is also undergoing some subtle changes.
Foreign inflows changed the style of the market, and funds began to embrace white horse blue-chips, mainly based on outstanding performance stocks; small and medium-sized ventures continued to decline, and previous fixed-increasing projects frequently “exploded,” and the fixed-income fund suddenly fell to the bottom and no one was interested.
After the popularity, from the “long” to the dark time, from the time, the fixed-income fund established in 2015-2016 has basically completed the investment before the new rules of refinancing and reduction of holdings in 2017.
Next, it should have been in the hopeful and expectant interval, waiting for the lockup period of the fixed increase project to expire.
However, an “unexpected” thing happened . At the end of August 2017, Huabao Securities released a research report on “Caitong Upgrade Incident Review”.
Specifically, on August 25, 2017 (Friday), the stock market rose sharply, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 1.
At 64%, the price of Caitong’s upgrade floor rose by 0%.
73%; but the over-the-counter net value announced by the fund fell by 0 in the evening.
91%, a serious departure from the broader market.
Huabao Securities analysis believes that this situation may be related to Caitong’s upgrade and transfer of the holdings of discounted shares through block trading.
This incident not only caused the market to further increase the liquidity of fixed-income projects, but also caused the price and net value of fixed-income funds to enter a negative feedback cycle.
After the 2017-2018 fixed-income projects are gradually withdrawn, the performance of the fixed-income fund will make too many investors who were rushing to tears: it is completely different from what was originally expected!
Taking the above-mentioned 27 fixed increase funds as an example, when their first public redemption, only 12 funds achieved positive returns; of the 14 funds whose performance was made up, 6 exceeded two.
▼ Attached picture: The performance of the Dingzeng Fund will be transitional when it is first redeemed!
On February 14, 2020, a new version of the “Refinancing Rules” was issued.
The fixed rate increase discount rate is reduced, the lock-up period is reduced, the participation threshold is reduced, and the new rules for reducing holdings are no longer applicable. This series of measures is simply tailor-made for the fixed increase fund.
So that after the new regulations were released, including all institutions that joined and were included, they shouted in succession: OK!
it is good!
it is good!
Analysis believes that under the new rules of refinancing, the fixed-income market is expected to usher in doubling growth, and the fixed-income fund is also expected to return to glory.
However, for the fixed-income funds that are in the darkest period from 2017 to 2018, they should expect a policy to be issued in less than three years.
At that point in time, they didn’t seem to have much choice.
According to Wind data, 2015?
2017 is the three years in which the fixed-income market has exploded. In these three years, the growth rate of A-shares has been in the trillions.
After 2018, under the then refinancing policy and reduction of holdings, and the market environment, the fixed-income market has gradually shrunk, and the financing scale in 2019 has basically returned to the level of 2014.
▼ Photo: The data of the scale of the A-share issuance in the past 10 years also means that when the fixed-income fund opened and redeemed for the first time in 2017-2018, it wanted to continue to insist, which has aggravated a lot, both in terms of rules and projects.Up.
The transition has become the “only” way for most fixed-income funds.
As an example, Qianhai’s open refinancing theme selected stock fund, as of the end of the four seasons of 2019, the fund’s stock investment position is 87.
45%, but in the top ten heavy stocks, there is no one shares in circulation.
Judging from the latest gradual net worth of these funds, most of them achieved better investment returns in the next 2 years; in addition to the selection of Qianhai’s open source refinancing themes, Hongde Hongfu, Hongde Honghua, Bo Shi Rui Yuan eventsThe gradual net value of the driver 淡水桑拿网 etc. also exceeds 1.
▼ Attached picture: After the current cumulative net value of 27 fixed value-added funds has experienced five years of ups and downs, fixed value-added funds have ushered in the new “finance” refinancing rules for themselves. What will institutions and investors choose next?
Is Dingzeng Fund about to return to its former glory?
let us wait and see.