Taoli Bread (603866) Matter Review： The business is still growing steadily
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Taoli Bread (603866) Matter Review: The business is still growing steadily
Matters: The company released the results report for the first quarter of 2019 to achieve revenue 11.
4.2 billion, +15 per year.
5%, to achieve net profit attributable to mother 1.
2.1 billion, +12 per year.
1%, realize the deduction of non-net profit1.
1.6 billion, ten years +10.
Ping An’s point of view: Revenue growth is slightly lower, and the impact of competing products is over-considered: Considering the company’s 1Q19 company’s no moon cake and dumpling business, 1Q19 revenue growth was slower than 2H18 bread17.
The growth rate of 1% has slightly 杭州夜生活网 weakened the growth momentum. We believe that the reason may be that the competitive products quickly opened up the national market after listing at the end of November 18, which had a certain impact on the company’s expansion.
Looking back, the high degree of industry prosperity and low concentration of taps, and the short-term guarantee attributes of the products determine that it is difficult for the company to achieve leapfrog development. The national layout of competing products still has controllable impact on the company. The company opens up new market terminals and sub-markets in new markets.Promoted by the promotion, it is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of more than 15% in advance.
The gross profit margin has increased, and the cost pressure is still prominent: the company’s 1Q19 net profit was +12 in the past.
1%, net interest rate is relatively 0.
32pcts. Considering that the company’s product structure optimization promotes the improvement of gross profit level, it is estimated that the sales expense ratio will increase to a certain extent due to the new development market investment.
Looking forward to the future, the company’s 2H18 single stores gradually resumed growth, and the quality of outlets gradually improved in 19, so that the main sales expense rate of physical costs such as transportation and labor fell, and performance may gradually enter the release period.
The long-term growth potential is large, and the inflection point of the expense ratio is approaching: the long-term guarantee of short-term insurance bread and the long-term growth certainty of a dominant competitive layout company. With the maturity of new markets, the scale effect promotes the gradual fall of the expense ratio. The company is expected to welcome3-5 years profit release period.
We maintain the EPS for 19-21 as 1.
The forecast of 49 yuan is +17 per year.
4%, corresponding to PE of 34.
0 times, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.
Risk reminders: 1. Risk of weak macro economy: slower economic growth, consumption upgrades are not up to expectations, leading to faster consumer growth; 2. risks of major food safety incidents: consumers are particularly sensitive to food safety issues.Major food safety accidents, it takes a long time for consumers to overcome the freezing point and reshape their confidence in the brand in the short term; 3, the expansion effect is less than expected risk: the company is promoting national expansion, and new market cultivation faces more uncertainty, orAs a result, performance was lower than expected.